| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Kansas State | 24-21 | 1779.1 | +80.2 | 1859.3 | 41.2% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | South Dakota | 55-7 | 1859.3 | +36.4 | 1895.7 | 96.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Iowa | 16-13 | 1895.7 | -19.9 | 1875.8 | 60.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 24-16 | 1875.8 | -37.0 | 1838.8 | 94.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Arizona | 39-14 | 1838.9 | +51.9 | 1890.8 | 56.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 30-38 | 1890.8 | -15.0 | 1875.8 | 59.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Colorado | 17-24 | 1875.8 | -16.9 | 1858.9 | 71.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | BYU | 27-41 | 1861.4 | -17.3 | 1844.1 | 37.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Arizona State | 19-24 | 1844.1 | -21.5 | 1822.6 | 57.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | TCU | 20-17 | 1822.6 | +6.9 | 1829.5 | 48.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Kansas | 38-14 | 1825.8 | +30.4 | 1856.2 | 59.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 20-13 | 1856.2 | -16.5 | 1839.7 | 92.0% |