| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Southeast Missouri State | 38-10 | 1688.2 | -40.4 | 1647.8 | 97.6% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Iowa | 13-16 | 1647.8 | +29.5 | 1677.4 | 20.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Bowling Green | 55-7 | 1677.4 | +2.0 | 1679.3 | 96.3% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Utah | 17-31 | 1679.3 | +16.8 | 1696.1 | 19.5% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | West Virginia | 45-42 | 1696.1 | -31.0 | 1665.1 | 74.0% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | BYU | 10-24 | 1665.1 | +5.7 | 1670.8 | 29.4% |